Canada are just over a week away from their 45th general election - who is leading the race as things stand?
With just 11 days until Canada's federal election on April 28, 2025, the race is intensifying between Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Carney, who assumed office in March following Justin Trudeau's resignation, has positioned himself as a crisis manager capable of confronting U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies.
In contrast, Poilievre advocates for change, criticizing Carney as a continuation of the status quo.
Recent polls indicate the Liberals leading with 38–44% support, while the Conservatives trail at 34–39%, making it a closely contested election. The outcome may hinge on the final days of campaigning, especially in key regions like Ontario and Quebec.
Will Canadians back Carney’s global expertise or Poilievre’s populist pitch?
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Canadian General Election Odds
Most Seats Odds
| Party | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 4/11 | 73.33% |
| Conservative | 11/4 | 26.67% |
| Any Other Party | 125/1 | 0.80% |
| New Democratic | 300/1 | 0.33% |
Government After The Election Odds
| Government | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party Majority | 8/11 | 57.89% |
| Conservative Majority | 4/1 | 20.00% |
| Conservatives Minority | 11/2 | 15.38% |
| Liberal Party Minority | 11/2 | 15.38% |
Who is the favourite to win the Canadian General Election?
As of April 17, 2025, the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, is the clear favourite to win the upcoming Canadian federal election, set for April 28, 2025 at a best price of 4/11 with William Hill to win the most seats.
With recent polling showing the Liberals at 38-40% national support, Carney’s team is in a strong position to secure a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons.
Projections place them between 188-213 seats, surpassing the 172 required for a majority (8/11 with bet365).
The Liberals' dominance in Ontario and Quebec, key regions that together account for more than half of the seats in Parliament, gives them a structural advantage.
Carney's economic expertise, particularly his handling of the U.S. trade war, has resonated with voters who are seeking stability and a firm response to external pressures.
However, while Carney has a solid lead, his untested political record and a platform (a set of policies, promises, and priorities that a political party presents to voters during an election campaign) that was delayed in its release may create some vulnerabilities, especially among undecided voters in the final days of the campaign.
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The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, remain competitive but are trailing behind the Liberals in the race at a best price of 11/4 with Starsports to win the most seats.
With current support at 34-36%, the Conservatives are projected to win between 110-122 seats, falling short of a majority (4/1 with Ladbrokes).
While Poilievre has strong support in the Prairies and parts of British Columbia, his inability to gain traction in Ontario and Quebec hampers his chances of securing a path to victory.
Poilievre’s populist messaging resonates with many voters frustrated by government spending and elite politics, but his image—often compared to U.S. President Donald Trump—has alienated some moderate Canadians.
Despite a strong French debate performance, Poilievre will need a standout performance in the English-language debate on April 17 to close the gap and shift the momentum in his favour.
